Cómo será el mercado inmobiliario de Nueva York pospandemia

Las disposiciones que determinaron el paro de la construcción, frenarán la oferta. Se abren nuevas oportunidades para el segmento residencial

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Agentes Inmobiliarios

Nueva York es un mercado extremadamente competitivo, con altas barreras de entrada, no solo por el capital requerido, sino también por el know-how para emprender cualquier tipo de empresa. Además, es un mercado que no necesariamente está alineado al resto de Estados Unidos. Es decir, cuando otras áreas del país están desacelerando, Nueva York puede estar operando a toda velocidad.

Antes del Coronavirus se podían sentir señales de saturación del mercado, con la oferta superando a la demanda sobre todo en Manhattan. Creo que las disposiciones gubernamentales que determinaron el paro de la construcción, frenarán la oferta, aliviando cierta competencia por los espacios vacantes. Sin embargo, este equilibrio de oferta y demanda no se dará en el corto plazo, debido a las millones de personas que se encuentran solicitando seguros de desempleo.

Luego del fin de la cuarentena, es probable que muchas personas observen cambios importantes en sus usos y costumbres. Seguramente, por temor a un posible contagio del Covid-19, haya muchos que dejarán el entretenimiento, los viajes, las vacaciones, etc., para otro momento. Por eso, pensamos que segmentos como hotelería, cruceros, teatros, cines y aviones, sufrirán las consecuencias de la pandemia por mucho tiempo.

Pero esta situación también traerá nuevas oportunidades para el segmento residencial. Se están armando algunos fondos para la compra de hoteles, asumiendo que por buen tiempo la gente viajará menos, algunos hoteles que por muchas causas no son muy rentables, lo serán mucho menos. Este tipo de activos se verá muy comprometido financieramente y por ello estos hoteles que estén bien ubicados en buenas zonas podrán reconvertirse en micro-unidades de residencia o albergues estudiantiles.

Hay que tener en cuenta que los precios en la ciudad ya se habían corregido en varios sub-mercados antes de la pandemia. En el caso de New York City, por ejemplo, la limitación en descontar los costos de impuestos y servicios de deuda por hipotecas, ya había hecho una corrección de ciertas propiedades de valor arriba de 3M de dólares.

Jersey City, es un mercado que seguirá ofreciendo grandes oportunidades de inversión debido a que el precio del terreno sigue siendo mucho más accesible que cualquier otra zona en el radio cercano a Manhattan. A su vez, los fundamentos socio-económicos, de infraestructura, topográficos, etc. son clave para un crecimiento sostenido a mediano y largo plazo, con o sin Coronavirus.

Creo que el negocio de real estate en Nueva York seguirá siendo un excelente activo como refugio de capital y más aún con un stock market tan volátil como hemos visto en el último mes. Este es el momento en que más pro-activos debemos ser. A mediano plazo veremos muchas oportunidades de inversión en Real Estate.

CEO de la desarrolladora Titanium Realty Group

Fuente: Diego Hodara

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